hi everyone this is charles hoskinson broadcasting live from warm city colorado just about to go to bed finally got a little bit of a shave tomorrow i hopefully will get the hair taken care of i just wanted to make a quick video uh because i encountered a really interesting set of statistics and stories and you know we're all locked down and the whole world is in a bad state and every now and then when you see a some rays of hope it's good to share them so let me share my screen real quick here let's see here share screens okay so this is an article uh from bloomberg and it's updated very frequently in fact it was just updated january 18th uh and basically they're tracking all the global distribution of vaccines and so for about 44 million vaccines in a given vast majority of which are moderna and pfizer and this is going to shoot up pretty rapidly so this is a picture of the entire united states and the darker the green gets the more vaccinations have occurred per a hundred people so right now the leader is west virginia and they're sitting at almost eight percent you can see them right there and then there's some stragglers like nevada and so forth that really don't have their act together and what's cool is you can see a breakdown of all the different uh vaccines uh distributed to states so how many been administered and percentage of shots used and so forth and then this is a world map of uh who's right now leading in the vaccination rate now one of the most interesting things is the country of israel you'll notice that israel is almost at 30 percent for vaccination and more precisely about 27 percent of its population has been vaccinated so netanyahu is up for re-election it seems and i think it's going to occur in march and he wants to vaccinate more than half of the entire country before march is over so if this occurs then there's a very good possibility that israel will start exhibiting herd immunity as early as march and israel has four government hmos they have universal health care and one of the advantages is that they have a unified emr system electronic medical records system so they're sharing medical data pretty much for the whole country uh with pfizer and these other companies so what that effectively means is that israel is in a very unique position to basically be the guinea pig for the entire world you see america is only sitting at about three percent of its population is vaccinated at the moment and that's mostly true for all of the developed countries so basically by march to april we should have some really good data points on two things one uh israel's biasing its vaccinations towards those over the age of 55. so there's a very good possibility that if they continue the trend that they're at about 80 percent of the population could be vaccinated at that age group so uh both the lethality and the rate of infection uh we'll be able to actually see definitively by april to may from the israeli data and that'll be available to all of the companies and that'll basically give us a good sense of a snapshot of what the world could look like by the end of 2021 and also it's very likely that if they continue this rate of vaccination and they see as i predict a huge decline in the death rate and a huge decline in the infection rate first through those observational studies they'll give us a good indication where these vaccines provide sufficient what's called sterilizing immunity so vaccine can prevent the onset of disease or it can also prevent the infection itself it's not necessarily guaranteed that'll prevent the infection so israel will basically give us because there's nine million people there it's very diverse population that's a statistically significant sample probably by april to may really good indications of whether these vaccines provide sterilizing immunity or not and also the rate of spread once you have some notion of her immunity so with those data points if they look positive then almost certainly it means that the pandemic will be broken uh sometime this year and completely looking in that we no longer need uh mask wearing we no longer need social distancing it'll just kind of work its way out but it's a pretty cool website i've bookmarked it the bloomberg global vaccine tracker it has the most up-to-date data another cool part of the website is if you go down it shows you all the different vaccine platforms and where they're at with approval so you can see pfizer and moderna are the two first out of the gate and astrozenica is also out of the gate it looks like they're going to most likely approve astrazeneca and johnson johnson in the united states in february and the european union looks like it's going to get approved broad scale around january 29th uh novavax yeah more likely than not late may to june i would estimate that the approval is going to come these five platforms are enough to vaccinate all of america all of europe uh by the end of 2021. then you can see cenovac and the sputnik 5 vaccine from russia and cancino and cena farm and all of these have been percolating through and it's some of the data they may not be as reported like there's been some discussions about sena farm and cenovac because there's discrepancies in that vaccine data between the brazilian trials and the chinese trials and then you can see the vaccine contracts here which actually show the amount of purchases that have occurred so if you hover your mouse over it astrazeneca for example india has purchased 1 billion doses and that's made by the serum institute which is the largest vaccine manufacturer in the world i and the estradica vaccine is actually the cheapest vaccine in the world for coronifiers and it's only about three pounds of dose the united states bought 300 million doses and then you can see novavax the us bought 110 million doses the pfizer we bought 200 million doses uh madera now we bought 200 million doses johnson and johnson we bought 100 million doses and what's really cool is justin johnson is actually a single shot platform which means that you only need to give one dose kirvak is a german company and uh they're actually using somewhat similar technology to pfizer and moderna and they're going to be doing main scale distribution in the european union here in a little bit so a great website to bookmark and come back to and a little ray of hope about what is this whole thing going to end when can we go back to business and go back to normal and i'm not cynical i like to believe that people at some point will make good decisions and the israel experiment will definitively show us before june basically a road map for the rest of the world and in fact it would not surprise me to see that the pandemic is effectively over in israel post june because they'll probably have hurt immunity at that point and while it'll still spread the vast majority of people who this would be an issue to uh will have been vaccinated and all the data of these vaccines they show very clearly that after you've gone through the entire regimen that no one is really getting serious illness even amongst the old um a counter example is the norway data there's been some issues where multiple people have died after receiving vaccinations in norway more than 30 but if you actually look deeply into that almost all of them were over the age of 75 and suffered from terminally ill conditions and they were very weak so it's probably not a good idea to vaccinate people above a certain age ban who have uh sufficient co-morbidities but anyway i just thought i'd share that you know i i'd like to start traveling again i think a lot of you would like to start traveling again and we're all tired of these lockdowns we're all tired of these uh aggressive anti-social uh procedures and wearing masks and other things and what you tend to look for is you know some case study where somebody's a little bit ahead of the game and what it allows you to do is to look six months into the future or nine months into the future so just by watching israel over the next six months it's going to give us a very good indication of where germany the uk the united states canada and many other countries will be and at the end of 2021 and if it's the case that people are in coffee shops again and there's no mask wearing and there's very little community spread of coronavirus uh and the death rate plummets in fact um there's a good evidence that if you vaccinated everybody over the age of 55 that the mortality rate would fall 92 percent uh assuming that vaccines prevent serious illness then then israel is basically going to give us that data they're sharing it now with basically the entire world so i just wanted to make a brief video and i show you guys this cool website you can do a little bit of searching and i certainly i'm going to watch it and hopefully we'll know for sure if uh what we think is true is true and if that's the case then there's some light at the end of the tunnel one last thing if you actually look at these different vaccine platforms as i mentioned pfizer and madarin are already here astrazeneca johnson johnson coming online in february would mean that we have four vaccines in distribution and by novavax coming online at the middle of may to june five vaccines and distribution means general vaccine availability will be pretty much guaranteed by the spring summer time it just depends on how fast they can manufacture uh jessica johnson's about two months behind where they need to be serum is really starting to rule up for the astrazeneca vaccine and they're also making it in belgium and a few other places uh so it's pretty good stuff uh it's coming up but darren and pfizer are working as hard as they can and scaling as hard as they can but uh they're uh they're at capacity right now israel actually did a very israel thing they paid 50 percent more for their pfizer vaccine and they made a data sharing deal with pfizer in order to continue getting enough doses to maintain their vaccination surge so it was a very good deal for them and hopefully it'll give the whole world a good data point so i hope this was helpful to everybody even the anti-vaxxers be frank i just don't care what you think i and i care more about just ending this pandemic and everybody get back to work in the world to get back to normal and this is the way out of it and we're almost there five platforms by june uh the distribution and doses are looking good for the entire developed world uh and uh israel will be the guinea pig of the entire world and we'll very soon be able to see if vaccination is the way out and we should know that by june according to this data pretty cool thanks for watching everybody i'll see you soon cheers
